Problem of Predicting the Spread of Coronavirus (Covid-19) for the World

Abstract

It is well known, that the recent spread of the Coronavirus COVID-19 has become a vital problem for the whole world. Suffi ce it to say that it was declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization on March 11 this year. Therefore, it is understandable what the signifi cance of the problem of predicting its spread may be. This work is dedicated to the experience and results of our research in this regard.

For clarity, we have note, that we discussed the forecasting problem for such characteristics of spread of the virus as the total number of infections worldwide (total cases) and the number of active cases (active cases).

Predictive estimates of these indicators have been found by us since February 13. However, given that the virus (originally spreading in China) spread around the world, that is, its spread has dramatically changed and, in addition, most of our prediction models have been short-lived, periodic adjustments to our prognostic estimates have been necessary.

However, it should be noted that the prognostic estimates we initially found (based mainly on the spread of the virus in China) were quite accurate. Specifi cally, according to our forecast, by the end of March, the total number of people infected with the virus should not have exceeded 85,000, actually in China (which actually defeated the virus!), as of March 21, amount of infected is 81008.